Long Term Adequacy Metrics - May 2009

May 1, 2009

The following changes have occurred to the Long Term Adequacy Metrics since the last posting (Long Term Adequacy Metrics - February 2009):

New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric: 

  • Projects completed and removed from list:  
    • Shell Caroline (19 MW)
    • Grande Prairie Generation - Northern Prairie Power Project (93 MW) 
  • Generation projects moved to “Active Construction”:  
    • N/A
  • Generation projects moved to “Regulatory Approval”:     
    • N/A
  • Generation projects that have been added to “Announced, Applied for AESO Interconnection, and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval":
    • TransCanada Turbines – Test Facility Expansion (65 MW)
    • Project 901 (160 MW)
    • Opti/Nexen Long Lake South (85 MW)
    • EPCOR IGCC Demonstration (270 MW)
    • EPCOR Amine Scrubbing Demonstration (150 MW)
  • Generation projects that have been added to “Deferred”:
    • Suncor Firebag Stage 3 (170 MW)
    • CNRL Horizon Phase 3 (85 MW)

Changes to generation projects:   

  • TransAlta – Sundance 5 Upgrade has changed to Aug-2009 from Sep-2009
  • Verdant Energy – Dapp Power Westlock Expansion ISD has changed to Mar-2010 from Sep-2009
  • Maxim Power – Deerland Peaking Station Unit 1 ISD has changed to 2010 from Sep-2009
  • Maxim Power – Deerland Peaking Station Unit 2 ISD has changed to 2010 from Sep-2010
  • Project 788 ISD has changed to Dec-2010 from 2008
  • Project 803 ISD has changed to Jan-2011 from Jul-2009
  • Project 739 ISD has changed to Mar-2010 from Aug-2009
  • Project 749 ISD has been removed to reflect an unknown in service date
  • Project 780 ISD has been changed to Oct-2011 from Oct-2009
  • Project 782 ISD has been removed to reflect an unknown in service date
  • Project 856 ISD has been changed to Nov-2010 from Apr-2010
  • Project 816 ISD has been removed to reflect an unknown in service date
  • Project 745 ISD has been changed to Mar-2012 from Aug-2010
  • Project 837 ISD has been changed to Nov-2010 from Sep-2011
  • Maxim Power – HR Milner Expansion ISD has changed to Jun-2013 from Dec-2012
  • Project 868 ISD has been changed to Apr-2012 from Jul-2014
  • Project 781 ISD has been changed to Dec-2018 from Jan-2018

Reserve Margin Metric:

  • The forecasted reserve margin has been updated and has decreased slightly in all years.

Supply Cushion Metric:

  • The forecasted supply cushion has been updated to reflect the new time period.

Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric:

  • New values for the metric have been calculated with Total Energy Not Served decreasing from 145 MWh to 72 MWh. This new value is below the 1600 MWh threshold.

1.  New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric:

The New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric is a summary of generation at various stages of development in Alberta and is shown in Tables 1 to 5 below. In Alberta’s deregulated electricity market competitive forces determine the location, magnitude and timing of new generation additions. Information on prospective generation additions and retirements provides context for the future market in Alberta.  The information is drawn from a variety of public sources and includes new generation, changes to existing generation and retirement of generating units. While the metric includes new wind generation projects under construction, a list of all new wind projects is available in the AESO Generation Interconnection Queue.

 

Table 1: Generation Projects under Active Construction

 

Table 2: Generation Projects with Regulatory Approval

 

Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Interconnection, and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval

 

Table 4: Generation Projects that have been Deferred

 

Table 5: Generation Projects that have Announced to Retire

 

2.  Reserve Margin Metric:

The Reserve Margin Metric, shown in Figure 1, presents a comparison of generation supply and demand in Alberta.  It is calculated by taking the amount of firm generation capacity at the time of system peak that is in excess of the system annual peak demand, expressed as a percentage of the system peak.  Firm generation is defined as installed and active construction generation capacity, adjusting for seasonal hydro capacity and behind the fence demand and generation and excludes wind capacity.  The forecasted reserve margin shows a decline from historically high margins.  The Reserve Margin Metric does not include the numerous projects that are approved or announced.  The reserve margin is graphed with and without intertie capacity since full import capability may not always be available at the time of system peak demand.

 

3. Supply Cushion Metric:

The Supply Cushion Metric provides visibility of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System’s ability to meet peak demand on a daily basis.  The supply cushion is the difference between the daily available firm supply minus daily peak demand.  The supply cushion refines the reserve margin calculation by using daily system peak rather than annual.  Figure 2 presents the estimated daily supply cushion for the next two years.  Figure 3 presents daily peak demand and firm supply by fuel type, as well as interties, wind and back up generation (Rainbow/Rossdale) which are not included in the supply cushion calculation due to the intermittent or uncertain nature of the supply.  When the supply cushion is negative in Figure 2, there is an increased level of reliance on interties, wind and back up generation, as indicated in Figure 3.

 

 

 

4.  Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric:

The Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric is a probabilistic assessment of encountering a supply shortfall over the next two years. It builds on the Supply Cushion Metric by incorporating the probability of wind production, forced generation outages and generation derates into the calculation of hourly firm supply. The calculation estimates, on a probabilistic basis, how much load may go without supply over the next two year period. Based on extensive consultation with stakeholders, when this unserved energy exceeds 1,600 MWh in any two year period (equivalent to one hour 800 MW shortfall in each of the two years), the AESO may take certain actions to bridge the temporary supply adequacy gap without impacting investor confidence in the market. The total energy not served shown in Table 6 does not reach the threshold.

 

Table 6: Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall