Long Term Adequacy Metrics - February 2010

February 1, 2010

The following changes have occurred to the Long Term Adequacy Metrics since the last posting (Long Term Adequacy Metrics - November 2009):

New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric:

Two changes have been made to the New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric this quarter. Wind projects that have applied for or have received AUC power plant approval have been added to the list. Projects that have been on the deferred list for longer than four quarters have been removed.

  • Projects completed and removed from list:  
  • Capital Power – Clover Bar 2 Peaker (101 MW)
  • Capital Power – Clover Bar 3 Peaker (101 MW)
  • Generation projects moved to “Active Construction”:  
  • Suncor - Firebag Stage #3 (170 MW)
  • Generation projects moved to “Regulatory Approval”:     
  • Greengate Power Corporation – Halkirk Wind Farm (150 MW)
  • TransAlta – Ardenville Wind Farm (66 MW)
  • NRGreen Power – Windfall Power Generating Station (16 MW)
  • Enel Alberta Wind Inc. – Castle Rock Wind Farm (115 MW)
  • Opti/Nexen – Long Lake South (85 MW)
  • Generation projects that have been added to “Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval":
  • Finavera – Ghost Pine Wind Farm (75 MW)
  • Alberta Wind Energy – Old Man River Wind Farm (47 MW)
  • Naturener – Wild Rose Wind Farm (200 MW)
  • Suncor – Wintering Hills Wind Energy Project (99 MW)
  • Greengate Power Corporation – Blackspring Ridge Wind (300 MW)
  • Nexen – Hand Hills Wind Power Project (60 MW)
  • Benign Energy Canada Inc. – Heritage Wind Farm (350 MW)
  • ENMAX – Kettles Hill Wind Farm Expansion (77 MW)
  • ATCO/TransCanada – Slave River (1,250 MW)
  • Generation projects that have been cancelled from the AESO Connection Queue and removed from the metric:
  • Verdant Energy – Dapp Power Westlock Expansion (14 MW)
  • Confidential – Project 745 (200 MW)
  • TransAlta – Sundance Unit 3 Upgrade (53 MW)
  • Confidential – Project 781 (1,500 MW)
  • Confidential – Project 788 (63 MW)
  • Confidential – Project 782 (123 MW)
  • Confidential – Project 749 (90 MW) 

Changes to generation projects:   
  • TransAlta - Keephills 3 has a new ISD of Q2-2011 from Q1-2011
  • Shell – Scotford Industrial System has a new ISD of Nov-2010 from 2010
  • Glacier Power – Dunvegan has a new ISD of Jul-2012 from Jun-2012
  • Plasco Energy Group Inc. – Plasco Waste Conversion Facility has a new ISD of 2012 from 2010
  • Confidential – Project 921 has a new ISD of May-2011 from Oct-2011
  • Suncor – Firebag Stage #4 has moved to ‘Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval’ from ‘Deferred’

Reserve Margin Metric:

  • The forecasted reserve margin has been updated and now includes 2015. The reserve margin increased in all forecast years.

Supply Cushion Metric:

  • The forecasted supply cushion has been updated to reflect the new time period.

Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric:

  • New values for the metric have been calculated with Total Energy Not Served increasing to 85 MWh from 68 MWh. This new value is below the 1,600 MWh threshold.

1. New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric:

The New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric is a summary of generation at various stages of development in Alberta and is shown in Tables 1 to 5 below. In Alberta’s deregulated electricity market competitive forces determine the location, magnitude and timing of new generation additions. Information on prospective generation additions and retirements provides context for the future market in Alberta.  The information is drawn from a variety of public sources and includes new generation, changes to existing generation and retirement of generating units. While the metric includes new wind generation projects that are under construction or have applied to the AUC, a list of all new wind projects is available in the AESO Generation Interconnection Queue.

Projects in the deferred category (Table 4) will be removed after four quarters.

Table 1: Generation Projects under Active Construction

 

Table 2: Generation Projects with Regulatory Approval

 

Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval

 

Table 4: Generation Projects that have been Deferred

 

Table 5: Generation Projects that have Announced to Retire

2.  Reserve Margin Metric:

The Reserve Margin Metric, shown in Figure 1, presents a comparison of generation supply and demand in Alberta.  It is a calculation of the firm generation capacity at the time of system peak that is in excess of the system annual peak demand, expressed as a percentage of the system peak.  Firm generation is defined as installed and active construction generation capacity, adjusting for seasonal hydro capacity and behind the fence demand and generation and excludes wind capacity.  The forecasted reserve margin shows a decline from historically high margins. The Reserve Margin Metric does not include the numerous projects that are approved or announced, providing a view of the minimum reserve margin that can be expected with certainty.  The information on approved or announced projects in the New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric provides context on future generation in Alberta and can be used to further interpret the reserve margin by allowing individual assessments of future generation developments to be incorporated.    The reserve margin is graphed with and without intertie capacity since full import capability may not always be available at the time of system peak demand.

3. Supply Cushion Metric:

The Supply Cushion Metric provides visibility of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System’s ability to meet peak demand on a daily basis.  The supply cushion is the difference between the daily available firm supply minus daily peak demand.  The supply cushion refines the reserve margin calculation by using daily system peak rather than annual.  Figure 2 presents the estimated daily supply cushion for the next two years.  Figure 3 presents daily peak demand and firm supply by fuel type, as well as interties, wind and back up generation (Rainbow) which are not included in the supply cushion calculation due to the intermittent or uncertain nature of the supply.  When the supply cushion is negative in Figure 2, there is an increased level of reliance on interties, wind and back up generation, as indicated in Figure 3.

4.  Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric:

The Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric is a probabilistic assessment of encountering a supply shortfall over the next two years. It builds on the Supply Cushion Metric by incorporating the probability of wind production, forced generation outages and generation derates into the calculation of hourly firm supply. The calculation estimates, on a probabilistic basis, how much load may go without supply over the next two year period. Based on extensive consultation with stakeholders, when this unserved energy exceeds 1,600 MWh in any two year period (equivalent to one hour 800 MW shortfall in each of the two years), the AESO may take certain actions to bridge the temporary supply adequacy gap without impacting investor confidence in the market. The total energy not served shown in Table 6 does not reach the threshold.

Table 6: Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall

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