Load Forecasting
The Electric Utilities Act requires the AESO to assess the current and future needs of market participants, and to collect and disseminate information relating to the current and future electricity needs of Alberta. The Transmission Regulation provides additional clarity about this responsibility requiring the AESO to make assumptions about future load growth and to anticipate future electricity demand.
In fulfilling this role, the AESO annually updates its outlook for market participant’s demand and energy requirements. This report is an important input into the AESO’s 10-year transmission system plan, the 20-year system outlook, and regulatory filings.
The AESO's annual assessment describes the assumptions, methodology and processes that the AESO employs. This document contains a most likely estimate of Alberta's future demand and energy requirements. These reports contain several sections including:
- Economic Outlook: Overview of economic and demographic conditions that impact electrical consumption in Alberta.
- Forecast Methodology: High-level process methodology map used in preparation of the outlook.
- Detailed Results: Aggregate demand and energy forecasts: i) grid demand (AIES); and ii) total demand (AIL), which includes load served by self-generation.
Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2009 - 2029)
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AIES and DTS FC2009_Update Cover Letter
[Posted: July 20, 2011] -
AIES and DTS Updated Tables
[Posted: July 20, 2011] -
AIES and DTS updated Datafile
[Posted: July 20, 2011] -
Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2009 - 2029) – Cover Letter
[Posted: February 24, 2010] -
Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2009 - 2029)
[Posted: February 24, 2010] -
Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2009 - 2029) and Stakeholder Information Session Update Notification - November 25, 2009
[Posted: November 25, 2009] -
Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2009 - 2029) and Stakeholder Information Session Update Notification - September 8, 2009
[Posted: September 8, 2009]
Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2008 - 2028)
2008 - Future Demand and Energy Outlook
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Confidence Band Intervals for the Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2008 - 2028)
[Posted: April 29, 2009] -
Stakeholder Information Session Presentation - April 2, 2009
[Posted: April 9, 2009] -
Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2008 - 2028) - Stakeholder Information Session - April 2, 2009
[Posted: March 5, 2009] -
Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2008-2028)
[Posted: January 30, 2009]
2008 - Forecast Confidence Interval Report
-
Confidence Band Letter to Stakeholders
[Posted: October 1, 2008]
2007 - Future Demand and Energy Outlook
-
Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2007-2027)
[Posted: January 31, 2008]
2006 - Future Demand and Energy Requirements
2005 - Future Demand and Energy Requirements
-
June 2005 - Future Demand and Energy Requirements (Period: 2005 – 2025)
[Posted: June 30, 2005]
2004 - Future Demand and Energy Requirements
-
June 2004 - Future Demand and Energy Requirements
[Posted: April 20, 2005]
