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    Forecasting

    An informed look ahead

    The AESO publishes a Long-term Outlook every two years with updates as necessary. It is our forecast for electricity demand and generation in the province looking out 20 years. We use it to inform our long-term transmission plans and regulatory filings.

    Using a variety of inputs including third-party forecasts and the most up-to-date data available, our outlook provides:

    • Expected growth in electricity demand, and timing
    • Anticipated demand for generation capacity
    • Potential types and locations of new generation

    2021 Long-term outlook

    The 2021 LTO will be used as the forecast of Alberta’s load and generation requirements over the next 20 years and is used as one of many inputs to guide transmission system planning, long-term adequacy assessments, and market evaluations.

    And while load growth is expected in the near term due to economic recovery as COVID-19 health restrictions ease, moderate load growth is expected over the next 20 years — but at a lower rate than in the previous 20-year period.

    2021 Long-term outlook materials

     

    2019 Long-term Outlook

     2017 Long-term Outlook